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How Low is Low?

Despite positive indicators-consumption growth, sound marketing strategies, solid promotional plans-tempered by a dash of conservatism, the forecast has not reflected the steeper than expected decline in factory shipments. The current global economic environment has made it extra challenging to forecast.  How low is low?   What other factors should be considered?  How do you resist the urge to ignore all input and just slash the forecast by some assumed factor when you continue to miss the forecast month after month?